Energy Minister Ruth Nankabirwa has warned fuel companies against creating artificial shortages and hiking prices.
At the 11th and 12th National Oil and Gas Conventions held this week at Speke Resort Munyonyo, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Development, Ruth Nankabirwa, delivered a stern message to the country’s fuel marketing companies: the current spike in pump prices is a distortion of reality.
As reports of fuel scarcity and rising costs began to emerge from various districts—particularly in upcountry and border areas—the Minister clarified that there is no fundamental economic reason for these shifts. Instead, she pointed the finger at speculative hoarding and “artificial shortages” created by dealers seeking to capitalize on global anxieties.
The Math of the Market: Old Prices, New Hikes
The crux of the Minister’s argument lies in the timing of Uganda’s fuel procurement. Under the current centralized system managed by the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC), the petroleum products currently sitting in Ugandan depots and retail tanks were purchased months ago.
“UNOC ordered the current reserves as early as January at the then-prevailing international prices,” Nankabirwa explained. “The company is still supplying products to marketing companies at those same old prices. There is absolutely no justification for hiking costs today based on yesterday’s global market fluctuations.”
In early 2026, international crude prices hovered around $65 per barrel. However, following geopolitical escalations in the Middle East—specifically tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States—global prices surged toward $120 per barrel in March. Minister Nankabirwa warned that while these higher costs will eventually reach the Ugandan consumer, that shift should not happen until May 2026, when the newer, more expensive shipments enter the domestic retail chain.
The 60-Day Safety Net
To quell fears of a national dry-out, the Ministry released detailed figures on Uganda’s current “fuel cover”—the number of days the country can survive on existing stocks without a single new drop crossing the border.
Contrary to social media rumors of an impending crisis, Uganda’s energy security is currently at one of its strongest levels in recent years:
- Petrol: Current stocks and incoming shipments provide approximately 67 days of cover.
- Diesel: The country holds a robust 84 days of reserve.
- Jet A-1 Fuel: Aviation reserves are at a high of 89 days.
With a national daily consumption of roughly 8 million liters, these figures suggest that Uganda is well-insulated against short-term disruptions at the Port of Mombasa or along the transit corridors.
The Geography of Scarcity
A curious trend noted by the Ministry is that while fuel supply remains relatively stable and priced competitively in Kampala and surrounding regions, the “scarcity” is most pronounced in the countryside and border towns like Arua, Kasese, and Tororo.
Investigations have revealed two primary drivers for this regional disparity:
- Hoarding: Local dealers in upcountry districts are allegedly restricting supply to create a local “panic,” allowing them to sell at a premium.
- Illicit Cross-Border Trade: Because Uganda’s fuel (thanks to the UNOC-Vitol partnership) is currently priced lower than in some neighboring countries, some unscrupulous dealers are diverting fuel meant for local consumption into the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and South Sudan to fetch higher profits.
Sanctions and Enforcement
The Ministry of Energy is no longer just “observing” the situation. Minister Nankabirwa announced that enforcement teams have been deployed to monitor retail outlets across the country.
The government is considering heavy sanctions against Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) found to be abetting these price hikes. These measures could range from hefty fines to the suspension of operating licenses for those caught hoarding or engaging in predatory pricing.
The Outlook for May and June
While the current price hikes are labeled “unwarranted,” the Minister was candid about the future. The “shield” provided by the January-priced stock is wearing thin. By mid-May 2026, the fuel purchased during the March price peak will begin to flow through the pumps.
“The impact of higher global prices is expected to be reflected from May as new shipments enter the market,” the Minister conceded. However, the government’s goal is to ensure that this transition is gradual and transparent, rather than the chaotic, speculative jump currently being forced on the public.
Final Message to Consumers
The Ministry’s final directive to the public was clear: Avoid panic buying.
Panic buying creates the very “operational stock-outs” that speculators use to justify higher prices. By remaining calm and buying only what is needed, Ugandan consumers can help stabilize the market and deny predatory dealers the “supply vacuum” they need to inflate their margins. For now, the tanks are full, the pipeline is flowing, and the government is watching the pumps.
