Uganda Vision 2040 is a national long-term development blueprint aiming to transform Uganda from a predominantly peasant and low-income country into a modern and prosperous, upper middle-income nation within 30 years, focusing on strengthening economic fundamentals and leveraging opportunities in areas like oil and gas, tourism, ICT, and industrialization. Launched in 2010, this vision is operationalized through a series of National Development Plans (NDPs), with the Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV) aiming to significantly increase GDP and per capita income by 2030.
The first half of Uganda Vision 2040 started in 2010 with the implementation of the first five-year National Development Plan (NDPI), and thereafter NDPII and NDPIII, which ends this financial year 2024/25. For the next 15 years, the successive National Development Plans will implement the Tenfold Economic Growth Strategy. This strategy aims to expand the size of the economy to USD 500 billion by 2040, from USD 61.3 billion estimated this financial year 2024/25.
According to Finance Minister, Matia Kasaija over the period, Government has undertaken targeted investments that have built a firm foundation and strengthened the resilience of Uganda’s economy.
“The economy more than tripled to Shs 226.3 trillion, equivalent to USD 61.3 billion, this financial year 2024/25, from Shs 64.8 trillion, equivalent to USD 27.9 billion, in FY2010/11. In March 2024 Uganda met the criteria for graduation from the category of Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Life expectancy has improved to 68.2 years in FY 2023/24 from 63.3 years in 2010/11 and from 50.4 years in 2002. This has been partly driven by improvements in access to health services, massive immunisation campaigns that reduced disease prevalence and child mortality. The population living within a 5-kilometre radius of a health facility is now 91 percent, from about 80 percent in FY 2010/11; and 81 percent of parishes now have government-aided schools.”
Additionally, poverty has decreased to 16.1 percent in FY 2023/24 from 24.5 percent in FY 2010/11. Persons in the subsistence economy reduced to 33 percent in FY 2023/24 from 69 percent in FY 2010/11.
Furthermore, Uganda is becoming a more equal society. The results of the National Household Survey released by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) show that income inequality has declined significantly in the past four years. The Gini coefficient, which is a statistical measure used to determine the extent of income inequality within a population, has reduced to 38 percent from 41 percent in 2020.
Installed electricity generation capacity increased fourfold to 2,051 megawatts in FY 2023/24, from 595 megawatts in FY 2010/11. Consequently, the proportion of the population with access to electricity increased fivefold to 60 percent in FY 2023/24 from 11 percent in FY
The percentage of the population subscribed to the internet rose to 53 percent in 2022, from 1.8 percent in 2010, and the National ICT Backbone infrastructure extended to 4,300 kilometres in FY 2022/23, from 1,380 kilometres in FY 2010/11.
According to President Museveni, the economy has diversified from the traditional 3Cs which are coffee, cotton and copper and 3Ts, which are tobacco, tea and tourism, to a more sophisticated economy. Uganda, the President says, has added 31 new products to its export basket in the last 15 years, including light manufactured products such as steel, processed food, cement, pharmaceuticals, dairy products, ceramics, and cloth.
The number of manufacturing units (factories of various sizes) has increased by about 18,000 from 31,757 in 2010/11 to 50,000 in 2023/24. As a result, this has increased the share of manufactured exports significantly.
Fifteen years into Uganda’s Vision 2040, is evident that the country has made significant headway on multiple fronts. The economy has grown, services have expanded, and new sectors are emerging. But beyond the headlines and statistics, the real question is: how much has life truly changed for the average Ugandan?
At the heart of the vision is a promise —to transform Uganda from a low-income agrarian society into a modern and prosperous one. One of the key drivers highlighted by government to achieve economic development and improve the welfare of Ugandans is electricity. Officials say that electricity has been extended to all parts of the country, including West Nile sub region and Kalangala which are now connected to the national power grid.
Uganda set an ambitious target to ensure electricity access for all citizens by 2030, a move aimed at driving industrial growth, job creation, and improved social services. Power regulator, the Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) says that access is steadily expanding – currently at 60%.
“We are currently at 60% access level,” said ERA CEO, Eng Ziria Tibalwa Waako.
Electricity access for all stems from the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 – ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030. This goal pushes countries to provide electricity to everyone regardless of their location or income. However, affordability remains a major hurdle for many households, turning electricity into a distant dream rather than a usable resource.
ERA CEO acknowledges that “power is useless to those who can’t afford it.”
“It is just mere wires flying over their property, flying over their villages, flying over their premises. So, affordability is very key. It matters knowing that utility services are a basic need because they impact the lives of society.”
To make power more affordable, and achieve the 2030 target of access for all, Waako highlighted various initiatives the country is undertaking.
“We have an ongoing (initiative), accelerating access to electricity funded by the World Bank. We have strategies for subsidizing last mile connection – we are coming up for cross subsidies in this area. There are programs for densification, intensification, and they are all efforts, and not only on the side of the last mile connection, because when I connect you, the next issue is that you need the electrons, you need the electricity; the reliable, safe and affordable electricity. So, we have to do an integrated resource planning where as we run with the connectivity to achieve 100% access, we should also be able to plan,” she said while speaking at the Africa Electricity Symposium in Kampala.
“We are prioritizing the 804-megawatt Ayago hydro power plant so that we don’t end up again in generation deficits. But also, we are prioritizing the transmission segment. As you may see now, almost on every highway, we have the transmission line that extends to all of the regions of the country. After the transmission, we have the substations, and then going down to the last mile. There is an issue of operation and maintenance because as we connect, transformers are getting overloaded, meaning we have to upgrade the transformers, we have to provide for the protection, we have to provide for rapid response when the consumers have issues. So, all this works together to create an environment in which the electricity supply industry is able to meet the two thematic areas; industrialization to fuel the economy and create jobs; and improve the deliverable services for the improved welfare of society,” she added.
Meanwhile, given that Uganda is no longer classified among the Least Developed Countries as government claims, is a major milestone. It gives the country more credibility globally and opens new opportunities for trade and investment. But it also raises the bar. With that status comes pressure to improve governance, create decent jobs, and raise the standard of living for all. Otherwise, progress risks becoming a headline rather than a lived reality.
Vision 2040 also aims to shift Uganda’s economic structure — less dependence on agriculture, more value-added production, and growth in sectors like tourism, oil and gas, ICT, and manufacturing. This economic diversification is a smart long-term strategy. It means more options for young people entering the job market. But it also means Uganda must invest heavily in skills development, infrastructure, and innovation—because a modern economy doesn’t grow on raw potential.
In the year 2040 when the period for the implementation of Vision 2040 elapses, the question will be more than just growth – it will be inclusive growth.
Experts say that Vision 2040 will only be truly successful if the average Ugandan can say: “my life is better today than it was ten years ago. That means jobs that pay a living wage, health care that actually heals, schools that teach, roads that last, and power that stays on.
