President Yoweri Museveni, on June 6, launched the Fourth National Development Plan (NDPIV)—the first in a series of three five-year plans designed to deliver Uganda’s tenfold growth strategy. This ambitious strategy aims to expand the economy from USD 53.7 billion in FY 2023/24 to USD 500 billion by 2040. With a strong focus on value addition, industrialisation, full monetisation of the economy, and rapid uptake of science, technology, and innovation, the Plan targets an annual growth rate of 10.13% by the end of its five-year period. It also aims to create nearly 885,000 jobs annually, expand high-value exports, and raise GDP per capita to USD 2,942—key milestones in Uganda’s broader goal of achieving tenfold economic expansion by 2040.
To achieve these objectives, NDPIV is focused on exploiting high-impact growth areas that will propel double-digit growth during the plan period and contribute to sustained economic expansion over the next 15 years. The government will aggressively invest in improving national competitiveness by prioritising development opportunities and ensuring rapid uptake of science, technology, and innovation (STI) in the identified growth sectors.
These strategic areas include full monetisation of the economy, value addition and industrialisation, agriculture, tourism development, mineral-based industrial development, information and communication technology (ICT), and finance. The Plan places particular emphasis on value addition as a core strategy for accelerating growth, creating employment, and generating wealth—ultimately aimed at achieving higher household incomes and full monetisation of Uganda’s economy.
The Fourth National Development Plan (NDPIV) outlines a set of strategic priorities aligned with the government’s development logic and focus. Central to these priorities is value addition across key sectors, including agriculture (fisheries and commercial forestry), tourism, minerals, and oil and gas—particularly through the petrochemical industry, such as the refinery and Kabalega Industrial Park.
To support value addition, the Plan emphasizes infrastructure development, including energy generation, transmission and distribution, science and technology innovation (STI) parks, special export processing zones, industrial parks, and the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP). Maintenance of existing infrastructure is also a critical component.
The knowledge economy is another priority, with a strong focus on science, technology, and innovation, including advancements in information and communication technology (ICT). Rail transport infrastructure—specifically the Standard Gauge Railway and Meter Gauge Railway—is targeted to improve Uganda’s connectivity to regional and global markets and reduce the cost of doing business.
Financial sector reforms aim to reduce the cost of credit, particularly through institutions like the Uganda Development Bank (UDB) and Uganda Development Corporation (UDC). The Plan also promotes full monetisation of the economy through wealth creation initiatives such as the Parish Development Model (PDM) and EMYOOGA.
Social services, including health and education, will be delivered through cost-effective solutions to consolidate development gains. The Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA) is positioned as Uganda’s major logistical hub and a catalyst for productivity, foreign direct investment (FDI), tourism, efficient public services, and improved quality of life.
Revenue generation is a key focus, with full implementation of the Domestic Revenue Mobilisation Strategy (DRMS) and exploration of innovative revenue sources across government entities.
Over the Plan period, Uganda targets double-digit economic growth of 10.13% by FY2029/30, expected to generate an average of 884,962 jobs annually. GDP per capita is projected to reach USD 2,942, solidifying Uganda’s middle-income status. External sector developments are anticipated to boost growth through increased exports of high-value commodities. The trade balance deficit is expected to improve to 3.5% of GDP by FY2029/30, down from 4.5% in FY2024/25, averaging 3.6% during the NDPIV period.
Additionally, the revenue-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 14.5% in FY2023/24 to 18.7% by FY2029/30, while the expenditure-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline from 24.7% to 19.1%, reflecting improved fiscal discipline and resource efficiency.
